Winning the next election could be Labor's undoing

Labor's victory in the next election may be its undoing, according to some experts.

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History is littered with unexpected wins that have ultimately led to a political party's downfall. For instance, Scott Morrison's unexpected win in 2019, which led to the Coalition cycling through three prime ministers and losing the 2022 election. Similarly, John Howard's victory in 2004, which gave the government the freedom to introduce WorkChoices, an industrial relations overhaul that became a political millstone.

The Labor Party's thumping victory in 2025 can breed a sense of invincibility, leading leaders and senior ministers to believe their own hype and detach from the issues affecting voters. This can delay the reckoning that forces renewal and an autopsy on a loss. In 1993, Paul Keating won a fifth consecutive term for Labor, but just three years later, the party was decimated, languishing in the political wilderness until 2007.

Speculation that Albanese is set to reshuffle his frontbench next year raises the question of whether he can avoid the fate of past governments. Another victory risks the government entering a third term without a clear agenda and renewed frontbench. Albanese is an astute student of politics and knows the danger of holding onto dead wood for too long.

Reports of frustration with Treasurer Jim Chalmers inside the Caucus and the prime minister's office are adding to the pressure. Industry Minister Tim Ayres has downplayed tensions between Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers, denying the prime minister is frustrated with the treasurer amid the fallout over the ATO credit card surcharge ban.