Victorian Labor Faces Caucus Concern Following Opinion Poll Tracking Third Behind Coalition and One Nation

Victorian Labor politicians have expressed both alarm and skepticism regarding a newly published opinion poll that places the party in third place ahead of the state election. The survey, conducted by DemosAU and PremierNational and published by the Herald Sun, indicates Labor’s primary vote has fallen by seven points to 18 percent, marking what the data describes as an all-time low for the party.

The figures show the Coalition leading the primary vote at 33 percent, with One Nation securing 21 percent and the Greens rising three points since September to reach 17 percent. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition holds a 56-44 lead over Labor, shifting from a 52-48 margin recorded in September.

George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU, stated that the poll surveyed 1,562 respondents with an effective sample of 818 and a 3.4 percent margin of error. Hasanakos noted that he verified the figures multiple times, asserting confidence in the extraordinary outcome. He suggested that if these numbers materialized on election day, many contests would feature the Liberals or Nationals against One Nation, likely leading to a Coalition majority due to Labor and Greens preferences flowing to the Liberals.

The Victorian Electoral Commission stated it plans to conduct a two-candidate-preferred count between the top two expected candidates based on polling, preference flows, and past results. The commission will withhold publication of these indicative counts until election day to prevent influencing voters.

Within Labor's campaign headquarters, officials are treating the 18 percent figure as an outlier, contrasting it with other public polls that place the party's primary support in the 20s. However, the survey has generated serious anxiety across the wider Labor caucus.

During a press conference in South Melbourne, Ben Carroll declined to comment directly on the poll's findings. Instead, he emphasized his government's dedication to working people and contrasted his administration with what he described as a potential Liberal-One Nation alternative that would negatively impact the state economy.