Higher temperatures fuel gun violence. Now we know how much is from climate change.

Climate change linked to increased gun violence, research finds.

The full report

A new study by Climate Central estimates that approximately 2,000 shootings between 2021 and 2025 in the 100 U.S. cities with the most gun violence are attributable to high temperatures made more likely by climate change. This finding is based on research shared with The Trace, a nonprofit focused on gun violence prevention. The study suggests that climate change is raising the risk of gun violence in these cities.

According to Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, “Across all of these cities, we see that in aggregate, climate change is raising the risk of gun violence.” The study also found that the baking July Fourth weekend in Philadelphia was at least twice as likely to occur due to climate change.

The theory that increased temperatures correspond with increased violence is well established, said John Roman, a distinguished senior fellow at the University of Chicago’s NORC social research center. He reviewed the Climate Central analysis and noted that record high temperatures this summer do not necessarily mean that climate change isn’t having an effect on gun violence.

Marion Campbell, executive director of Eddie’s House, a Philadelphia nonprofit that provides violence prevention and social services, attributes the increase in gun violence to the vulnerability of populations who cannot afford air conditioning. She notes that when people get hot, they get irritated, which can lead to increased frustration and violence.