How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election

With the October 2026 general election approaching, Arab Israelis are mobilizing to vote against the right-wing coalition, driven by a desire to end what they describe as systemic discrimination and rising gang violence.

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In Nazareth, the largest Arab-majority city in Israel, students are distributing leaflets urging motorists to participate in next week's closely fought general election. While disaffection has historically suppressed voter turnout among Arab Israelis—who account for approximately one-fifth of the population and often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel—there is a significant push this cycle to remove the country's most right-wing governing coalition in its history. The current administration, an alliance between veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, faces intense opposition from Arab citizens who feel treated as second-class citizens.

Political analysts indicate that neither Netanyahu nor the main 'Change Bloc', led by centre-right former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, currently holds a clear path to a parliamentary majority. Polls suggest both blocs could secure around 50 seats out of 120, while Arab-majority groupings might capture 13 or 14 seats. This scenario would compel anti-Netanyahu parties to either break their pledges against working with the prime minister or form a coalition with Arab lists. A primary obstacle remains Eisenkot's refusal to govern with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values, though some observers argue this stance reflects political interests rather than genuine ideological alignment.

The election is taking place against a backdrop of deepened social divisions and increased hostility towards the Arab minority following the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023. Civil society groups report disproportionate budget cuts for Arab communities, alongside politicized campaigns targeting Arab physicians and racially motivated attacks on bus drivers. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has vowed to 'Judaise' regions in northern Galilee and southern Negev where most Arabs live, a policy likened by critics to expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank. Conversely, the Netanyahu campaign has utilized billboards and AI-generated videos to delegitimise Arab parties, framing them as representatives of 'Palestine' rather than Israel.

Beyond political representation, rampant gang crime is driving voter engagement for many Arab citizens. A September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 53.5% of Arab citizens cited gang crime as their primary factor when deciding which party to support. Murders within the community reached a record high of 252 last year, according to the Abraham Initiatives, significantly higher than Jewish Israeli fatalities. In Jaffa, Ziad Samouni, whose son was shot dead by gunmen in November with no arrests made, describes the government's handling of such cases as a failure that fuels cycles of violence within Arab society.

United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas has prioritised solving problems for Arab Israelis over representing Palestinian interests in Gaza or the West Bank. Having served as a minister under Naftali Bennett previously, Abbas aims to reach a position of influence rather than merely representation, having placed a Jewish centrist on his slate's number two position. The Joint List, which advocates for equal rights and a two-state solution, seeks to provide an electoral 'safety net' to opposition blocs in exchange for support on key policies. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court recently overruled the Central Elections Committee's decision to disqualify these lists, reversing arguments that they denied Israel's status as a Jewish state.