Bulgaria: Concerns about security in the Black Sea dominate presidential election campaign

Bulgaria's presidential election campaign is dominated by concerns about security in the Black Sea and the country's foreign policy, particularly its support for Ukraine.

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Bulgaria's presidential election campaign has been shaped by recent drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea and the government's reduced support for Ukraine, making foreign policy a key factor in the first round. The election on October 25 — with a potential runoff on November 1 — will serve as a test for the government of former President Rumen Radev, whose party won a landslide victory in April, securing an unprecedented majority — the first in Bulgaria in almost three decades.

Although there are 27 candidates on the ballot, the race has narrowed to a duel between the incumbent president, Iliana Yotova, who served two terms as Radev's vice president and is backed by the prime minister, and former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, who is supported by opposition parties. According to the Bulgarian Constitution, the Bulgarian president embodies national unity and has significant powers, including representing the country at international level, being the commander-in-chief of its armed forces, and appointing members of the Supreme Judicial Council and various regulatory bodies.

Hristo Panchugov, a political scientist at the New Bulgarian University in Sofia, argued that although the president's powers are formally limited, the office is particularly significant in the current context. Panchugov stated that it would have been better if the campaign had focused more on whether the president could serve as a counterbalance. Opposition candidate Andrey Gyurov reiterated this point, stating that a president should know how to say no.

In recent weeks, following drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea, the two frontrunners' diverging positions on support for Ukraine have come to the fore. Bulgaria's government initially declined invitations to join the Coalition of the Willing and NATO's anti-drone initiative but changed its position on the latter after the recent drone attacks. Yotova has advocated for the establishment of a "Coalition of Peace," in which she believes Bulgaria would have a stronger diplomatic voice in the process to end Russia's war in Ukraine.