{
  "asOf": "2026-10-30",
  "kind": "Transcribed draft simulation endpoints; not forecasts",
  "source": "https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6ae487ae3fc481918127e91ce70f0f85",
  "originalModelAvailable": false,
  "originalFullCsvAvailable": false,
  "initialPopulation": 100000,
  "initialDwellings": 41300,
  "scenarioYear": 2056,
  "aiScenario": "moderate",
  "definitions": {
    "population": "People in fictional town",
    "ownership": "Draft-reported homeownership percentage; detailed denominator not independently verified",
    "ratio": "House price divided by one worker annual wage; not household income"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Low fertility",
      "fertility": 1.5,
      "population": 108475,
      "ownership": 70.4,
      "ratio": 6.28
    },
    {
      "name": "Replacement-level fertility",
      "fertility": 2.1,
      "population": 113103,
      "ownership": 70.1,
      "ratio": 6.38
    },
    {
      "name": "Higher fertility",
      "fertility": 2.7,
      "population": 117782,
      "ownership": 69.8,
      "ratio": 6.49
    },
    {
      "name": "Large-family scenario",
      "fertility": 3.5,
      "population": 123933,
      "ownership": 69.4,
      "ratio": 6.62
    },
    {
      "name": "Draft baseline",
      "fertility": null,
      "population": 141778,
      "ownership": 53,
      "ratio": 10.49
    }
  ],
  "officialPopulation": {
    "date": "2026-03-31",
    "population": 27921150,
    "annualGrowth": 392700,
    "netOverseasMigration": 292100,
    "naturalIncrease": 100600
  },
  "sources": [
    [
      "ABS population, March 2026",
      "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026"
    ],
    [
      "ABS CPI, September 2026",
      "https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/sep-2026"
    ],
    [
      "NHSAC: State of the Housing System 2026",
      "https://nhsac.gov.au/reports-and-submissions/state-housing-system-2026"
    ],
    [
      "NHSAC: August 2026 update",
      "https://nhsac.gov.au/reports-and-submissions/quarterly-report-august-2026"
    ],
    [
      "Productivity Commission: housing construction",
      "https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries-and-research/housing-construction/"
    ],
    [
      "RBA: international students and the economy",
      "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2025/jul/international-students-and-the-australian-economy.html"
    ],
    [
      "Original NewNWS case-study draft",
      "https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6ae487ae3fc481918127e91ce70f0f85"
    ]
  ]
}